Games Workshop Gossip: Release Schedule Trends

I thought I would take a stab at explaining some of the trends GW Managers used and most likely still use to predict releases etc. This isn’t a full proof system, and I’ll give you examples of why, but this can help put into perspective the rumors that flood the internet. In other words, read further to get an idea about what is coming out next.

 

Firstly you need to remember that GW is a company, with share holders who care about their mid year reports and their end of year reports. This means that if the financial year previous they had a load of big sellers come out in the first half of the financial year and then the following year they will have to release ‘matching’ releases otherwise they’ll show negative profit growth at the mid year point. I.e. 2013 Sell tons in the first half, but little in the second half, 2014 sells little in the first half and tons in the second half would be a bad thing. They even out at the end, but mid year things look bad for the company, which means stocks go down and investors get itchy (no one likes itchy investors, or being itchy...) So it's better to try to match the release windows as best as possible. It also helps managers and regional managers track how well they are performing without having to guess the impact one release had over another, although that still happens, but to a lesser extent than it could.

The obvious example is the July and September releases when GW releases their rule book and box game. Every other year there is a rule book released in July and a box game released in September and this trend goes back to the Battle for Macragge. Don’t believe me? Let me show you:

September 2012 – Dark Vengeance (40k)

July 2012 – 40k 6^th Ed Rule Book

September 2010 – Island of Blood (WHFB)

July 2010 – WHFB 8^th Ed Rule Book

September 2008 – Assault on Black Reach (40k)

July 2008 – 40k 5^th Ed Rule Book

September 2006 – Battle for Skull Pass (WHFB)

July 2006 – WHFB 7^th Ed Rule Book

September 2004 – Battle for Macragge (40k)

July 2004 – 40k 4^th Ed Rule Book

I can’t be bothered to research back, but I’m sure the trend continues a little further back. So pushing forward you can image the following:

July 2014 – WHFB 9^th Ed Rule Book

September 2014 – WHFB 9^th Ed Box Set

July 2016 – 40k 7^th Ed Rule Book

September 2016 – 40k 7^th Ed Box Set

Now that’s not me having an 'inside' with anyone up in Nottingham, that’s just following a 10 year release trend.

And you can do relatively the same thing for most release windows. December never has anything too big, they normally have some limited edition figure cases, half way through November you’ll get a Mega Paint Set, they’ll release some actual money saving bundles for 40k/WHFB. Those will likely be the previous year’s newest releases for 40k and WHFB and a corresponding opposite army/an army linked with the box game. Proof you say? Sure why not.

2012 December Army Deals

Vampire Counts (released January 2012)

High Elves, (Island of Blood army)

Necrons (released November 2011)

Space Marines (box game army, and also it’s ALWAYS Space Marines)

2011 December Army Deals

Space Marines (Seriously, it’s always Space Marines)

Dark Eldar (Released November 2010)

Skaven (Box Game army, which came out in September 2010)

High Elves (Box Game Army, which came out in September 2010)

2010 December Army Deals

Skaven (Box Game army, which came out in September 2010)

High Elves (Box Game Army, which came out in September 2010)

Space Marines (Do I need to tell you again it’s always Space Marines)

Orks (Box Game Army, no other ‘evil’ army came out before that point, it was almost all Imperial Armies)

2009 December Army Deals

Empire (Had had a secondary release in Aprilish of 2009)

Orks and Goblins (Box game army, fits with Empire)

Space Marines (Space marines, wow that’s never happened before..)

Orks (Box Game army, Assault on Black Reach had just come out the previous year)

Following this trend, i forsee for 2013 December Army Deals the following:

Space Marines 

(because yeah, it's always Space Marines and they go with Dark Vengeance, which okay are Dark Angels, but seriously they're the same thing. Deal with it..)

Chaos Space Marines

(The reason they weren't in last years Deals was due to their release in October, GW NEVER releases a money saving bundle with anything that was new in like the last 10months)

Warriors of Chaos

(They're the oldest newest army, if that makes sense, can't be Dark Elves because they're too new)

Empire

(Been a while since they were in the bundle, they match Warriors of Chaos pretty well and they've had an army release in the last few years. It can't be High Elves as they're too new an army.)

Before you say btw, but Uncle Nurgle we've already had the Holiday Bundles, they're NOT holiday Bundles...I'm pretty sure they're not holiday bundles. If they are I'll eat my digital hat and say a prayer for the GW Managers back in England that I liked (all 6 of them) because if those ARE the holiday bundles my God do they look awful and wow will they be harder to sell.

Next time I’ll go into some of the more difficult patterns to recognize and talk a little about the Mystery Box everyone thought was coming out this year and didn’t.